Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 16.873146 20.434014 24.390799 29.089497 34.491887 40.483435 47.604514
2025-05-04 12.031482 16.740433 22.546398 30.122217 39.627715 51.036129 65.627852
2025-05-11 9.228838 14.341585 21.175234 30.740305 43.517558 59.715292 81.480672
2025-05-18 7.119556 12.235389 19.582799 30.508177 45.887768 66.274067 94.767270
2025-05-25 5.427367 10.291398 17.774563 29.544627 46.917774 70.874137 105.521696
2025-06-01 4.319556 8.980561 16.618146 29.248204 48.677066 76.387656 117.634193
2025-06-08 3.309081 7.582710 15.057995 28.060153 48.893555 79.595437 126.567698
2025-06-15 2.845787 7.065259 14.845562 28.928420 52.216463 87.401783 142.358351
2025-06-22 2.235154 6.103146 13.687042 28.051313 52.657067 90.868572 151.912383
2025-06-29 1.963822 5.784748 13.644866 29.058193 56.170954 99.143817 168.941684
2025-07-06 1.473721 4.832773 12.218229 27.398628 55.063074 100.103825 174.857986
2025-07-13 1.295887 4.587836 12.170351 28.265760 58.304453 108.091929 191.908635
2025-07-20 1.109625 4.299115 12.051136 29.118141 61.829455 117.128753 211.690826
2025-07-27 0.954581 4.053189 11.997746 30.122611 65.761988 127.154488 233.695598
2025-08-03 0.802848 3.759225 11.774294 30.739146 69.006356 136.175431 254.458307
2025-08-10 0.638574 3.351739 11.190238 30.506943 70.606028 142.441469 270.951007
2025-08-17 0.479949 2.879449 10.331346 29.543420 70.680575 146.016573 283.080272
2025-08-24 0.376652 2.561180 9.805824 29.247007 72.016219 151.843881 299.190913
2025-08-31 0.272532 2.165130 8.956740 28.058996 71.414835 154.110837 309.265264
2025-09-07 0.234157 2.061117 8.956009 28.927234 75.136207 164.448757 333.684759
2025-09-14 0.171347 1.772585 8.298489 28.050156 75.067074 167.716545 345.818280
2025-09-21 0.149078 1.707783 8.366133 29.057002 79.144588 178.972492 372.490466
2025-09-28 0.098787 1.396796 7.484494 27.397492 77.181759 178.570209 378.251937